This briefing measures how many roofing-related businesses start and how many survive at the 1, 3, 5, and 10-year marks, using the two definitive federal datasets that track new business activity: the U.S. Census Bureau Business Formation Statistics (BFS) and the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Business Employment Dynamics (BED) establishment age and survival series. A critical limitation governs this entire report: the federal survival data are published at the Construction sector level (NAICS 23), not for roofing contractors alone (NAICS 238160). Every survival figure below describes all Construction establishments, of which roofing is one trade, and should be read as the best available proxy for roofing, not a roofing-specific measurement.
Executive Summary
- Construction establishments that opened in the year ended March 2014 had a 10-year survival rate of 42.8 percent as of March 2024, meaning roughly 4 in 10 were still operating a decade later (Source: U.S. BLS, Business Employment Dynamics, Establishment Age and Survival, Table 7, data through March 2025).
- Construction survives at a higher rate than the private sector overall: the March 2014 Construction cohort beat the all-private-sector cohort at every age, 82.8 percent versus 79.7 percent at year 1 and 42.8 percent versus 34.9 percent at year 10 (Source: U.S. BLS, BED, Table 7).
- About 1 in 5 new Construction establishments closes within its first year: the March 2014 cohort retained 82.8 percent after 12 months, an 17.2 percent first-year exit rate (Source: U.S. BLS, BED, Table 7).
- Across the seven most recent Construction opening cohorts (years ended March 2018 through March 2024), 1-year survival averaged 80.9 percent, versus 78.7 percent for all private-sector establishments over the same cohorts (Source: U.S. BLS, BED, Table 7; The Roofing Brief calculation).
- The U.S. Census Bureau recorded 392,496 total business applications in January 2025, seasonally adjusted, across all industries (Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Business Formation Statistics, January 2025 release, February 12, 2025).
- A record 5.5 million new business applications were filed across all U.S. industries in calendar year 2023, the strongest year on record (Source: U.S. SBA citing U.S. Census Bureau Business Formation Statistics, January 11, 2024).
- Construction establishment openings (annual cohorts in the BED age series) numbered 64,892 in the year ended March 2024 and 62,594 in the year ended March 2025, up from a post-recession low of 40,927 in the year ended March 2010 (Source: U.S. BLS, BED, Table 7).
- BED data are not roofing-specific; the lowest survival published is at the 2-digit Construction sector level, and roofing-only formation and survival rates are not separately published by either Census BFS or BLS BED (data limitation, confirmed June 2026).
Key Findings
- The Construction sector cohort that opened in the year ended March 2014 had survival rates of 82.8 percent at 1 year, 74.6 percent at 2 years, 68.2 percent at 3 years, 58.3 percent at 5 years, and 42.8 percent at 10 years, measured to March 2024 (Source: U.S. BLS, BED, Table 7).
- The all-private-sector cohort that opened in the year ended March 2014 had survival rates of 79.7 percent at 1 year, 61.8 percent at 3 years, 50.8 percent at 5 years, and 34.9 percent at 10 years (Source: U.S. BLS, BED, Table 7).
- The implied 10-year failure rate for the March 2014 Construction cohort is 57.2 percent, versus 65.1 percent for all private-sector establishments (The Roofing Brief calculation from U.S. BLS, BED, Table 7).
- Construction 1-year survival for recent cohorts ranged from 78.7 percent (year ended March 2019) to 83.2 percent (year ended March 2020) (Source: U.S. BLS, BED, Table 7).
- Construction 5-year survival for the year-ended-March-2020 cohort was 56.5 percent, measured to March 2025 (Source: U.S. BLS, BED, Table 7).
- The number of Construction establishment openings rose from 46,782 in the year ended March 2014 to 64,892 in the year ended March 2024, a 38.7 percent increase over the decade (The Roofing Brief calculation from U.S. BLS, BED, Table 7).
- Construction openings peaked before the last recession at 86,247 in the year ended March 2006, then fell to 40,927 by the year ended March 2010 (Source: U.S. BLS, BED, Table 7).
- In the third quarter of 2025, U.S. private-sector gross job gains from expanding and opening establishments were 7.5 million, while gross job losses from contracting and closing establishments were 7.6 million (Source: U.S. BLS, Business Employment Dynamics, Q3 2025 Summary).
- U.S. total business applications were 392,496 in January 2025, seasonally adjusted, with 138,605 classified as high-propensity applications likely to become employers (Source: U.S. Census Bureau, BFS, January 2025 release).
- The monthly average for total U.S. business applications reached roughly 440,000 during 2021 through 2023, about 46 percent higher than the prior four-year period (Source: U.S. SBA citing U.S. Census Bureau BFS, January 11, 2024).
- Construction has historically ranked among the lower-surviving sectors in popular summaries, yet the BED Table 7 cohort data show Construction outperforming the all-private-sector average at every tracked age for the March 2014 cohort (Source: U.S. BLS, BED, Table 7).
- Roofing-specific business formation and survival rates are not separately published by Census BFS or BLS BED; both publish Construction at the 2-digit NAICS 23 level (data limitation, confirmed June 2026).
How Many Roofing Businesses Start
Neither the Census Bureau nor the BLS publishes a roofing-only count of new business starts. The closest official measures are total business applications (Census BFS, all industries and by 2-digit NAICS sector) and Construction establishment openings (BLS BED age cohorts). Both are reported here, with the Construction figure as the nearest proxy for roofing.
| Measure | Value | Period | Geography | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total business applications, all industries (seasonally adjusted) | 392,496 | January 2025 | United States | Census BFS |
| High-propensity business applications (likely employers) | 138,605 | January 2025 | United States | Census BFS |
| Total new business applications, annual | 5.5 million (record) | Calendar year 2023 | United States | Census BFS via SBA |
| Construction establishment openings (BED annual cohort) | 64,892 | Year ended March 2024 | United States | BLS BED, Table 7 |
| Construction establishment openings (BED annual cohort) | 62,594 | Year ended March 2025 | United States | BLS BED, Table 7 |
Two different concepts are at work. A Census “business application” is an IRS Form SS-4 filing for an Employer Identification Number, which may or may not become an operating business. A BLS BED “establishment opening” is a physical location that first appears with positive employment in the longitudinal employment database. The BED count is far smaller because it captures only establishments that actually began paying wages, and it covers Construction specifically rather than all industries. Roofing contractors fall within NAICS 238160, a sub-industry of Construction, and are not separately broken out in either annual survival series.
How Many Roofing Businesses Survive
The BLS Business Employment Dynamics age series tracks each annual cohort of new establishments forward in time and reports the share still operating at each anniversary. The table below shows the survival curve for the Construction cohort that opened in the year ended March 2014, the most recent cohort old enough to have a full 10-year observation (through March 2024), alongside the all-private-sector cohort from the same year. These are the strongest available proxies for roofing survival.
| Years since opening | Construction survival (%) | All private sector survival (%) | Construction advantage (pct points) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 (opening) | 100.0 | 100.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 year | 82.8 | 79.7 | +3.1 |
| 2 years | 74.6 | 69.3 | +5.3 |
| 3 years | 68.2 | 61.8 | +6.4 |
| 4 years | 63.2 | 55.8 | +7.4 |
| 5 years | 58.3 | 50.8 | +7.5 |
| 6 years | 53.6 | 46.5 | +7.1 |
| 7 years | 51.2 | 43.2 | +8.0 |
| 8 years | 48.7 | 40.7 | +8.0 |
| 9 years | 45.8 | 37.7 | +8.1 |
| 10 years | 42.8 | 34.9 | +7.9 |
Source: U.S. BLS, Business Employment Dynamics, Establishment Age and Survival, Table 7, data through March 2025. Cohort is establishments that opened in the 12 months ended March 2014, tracked to March 2024. The Construction advantage column is a Roofing Brief calculation (Construction survival minus all-private survival). The pattern is consistent and widens with age: Construction establishments are more likely to survive than the average private-sector establishment at every anniversary, and the gap grows from about 3 percentage points at year 1 to nearly 8 percentage points at year 10. This contradicts the common claim that construction firms fail at unusually high rates; in the federal cohort data they do not.
Survival by Recent Cohort
Because the 10-year mark is only fully observable for older cohorts, the table below shows 1-year, 3-year, and 5-year survival for the Construction cohorts that are old enough to report each milestone, using the latest data through March 2025.
| Opening cohort (year ended March) | Establishments at opening | 1-year survival (%) | 3-year survival (%) | 5-year survival (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 58,991 | 80.5 | 65.5 | 56.2 |
| 2019 | 60,967 | 78.7 | 66.6 | 55.8 |
| 2020 | 57,753 | 83.2 | 68.2 | 56.5 |
| 2021 | 59,125 | 81.2 | 64.5 | not yet at 5 years |
| 2022 | 66,978 | 81.1 | 63.8 | not yet at 5 years |
| 2023 | 66,488 | 81.6 | not yet at 3 years | not yet at 5 years |
| 2024 | 64,892 | 79.7 | not yet at 3 years | not yet at 5 years |
Source: U.S. BLS, Business Employment Dynamics, Establishment Age and Survival, Table 7, data through March 2025. First-year survival for Construction has been stable in the 78.7 to 83.2 percent range across these cohorts. The year-ended-March-2020 cohort, which opened just before the pandemic disruption, recorded the highest 1-year survival in this window at 83.2 percent, a reminder that early-stage survival reflects macroeconomic timing as much as industry fundamentals.
Construction Startups Over Time
The annual count of new Construction establishments tracks the building cycle closely. The table below shows opening cohorts at selected points, illustrating the collapse after the 2006 peak and the recovery through the most recent data.
| Opening cohort (year ended March) | Construction establishments opened |
|---|---|
| 2006 (pre-recession peak) | 86,247 |
| 2010 (post-recession low) | 40,927 |
| 2014 | 46,782 |
| 2018 | 58,991 |
| 2022 | 66,978 |
| 2023 | 66,488 |
| 2024 | 64,892 |
| 2025 | 62,594 |
Source: U.S. BLS, Business Employment Dynamics, Establishment Age and Survival, Table 7. Construction openings fell 52.5 percent from the year-ended-March-2006 peak to the year-ended-March-2010 trough, then more than recovered, reaching 66,978 in the year ended March 2022 before easing to 62,594 in the year ended March 2025 (The Roofing Brief calculations from the same table). Roofing is one trade within these totals and is not separately reported.
Job Flows Context
The broader BED quarterly series shows the churn behind these formation and survival numbers across the whole private sector. In the third quarter of 2025, gross job gains from expanding and opening private-sector establishments were 7.5 million, and gross job losses from contracting and closing private-sector establishments were 7.6 million (Source: U.S. BLS, Business Employment Dynamics, Q3 2025 Summary). These are economy-wide figures, not Construction-specific, and are included to show the scale of ongoing establishment turnover that underlies any single sector’s survival curve.
Original Synthesis
The three derived insights below are built only from the verified federal datasets cited above. Each states its formula, inputs, and limitations.
1. The Construction Survival Premium
Formula: Construction cohort survival rate minus all-private-sector cohort survival rate, at each age, for the year-ended-March-2014 cohort. Inputs: U.S. BLS BED Table 7 (Construction) and Table 7 (Total Private). Result: Construction shows a positive survival premium at every age, rising from +3.1 percentage points at year 1 to +7.9 percentage points at year 10. Interpretation: a Construction establishment, the best proxy available for a roofing business, was about 23 percent more likely than the average private-sector establishment to still be operating after 10 years (42.8 percent versus 34.9 percent). Limitation: this is the single 2014 cohort; the premium could differ for cohorts hit by different macro conditions, and roofing alone may deviate from the Construction average.
2. Implied 10-Year Failure Rate
Formula: 100 percent minus 10-year survival rate. Inputs: U.S. BLS BED Table 7. Result: the implied 10-year failure rate for the year-ended-March-2014 Construction cohort is 57.2 percent (100 minus 42.8), versus 65.1 percent for all private-sector establishments (100 minus 34.9). Interpretation: slightly more than half of new Construction establishments do not reach their 10-year anniversary, but the sector still outperforms the private-sector average failure rate by roughly 8 percentage points. Limitation: “failure” in the BED definition means the establishment no longer reports positive employment; it can reflect closure, sale, merger, or a drop to zero employees, not only business failure.
3. Recent-Cohort First-Year Survival Index
Formula: simple average of 1-year survival across the seven most recent Construction cohorts (years ended March 2018 through March 2024), compared with the same average for all private-sector cohorts. Inputs: U.S. BLS BED Table 7. Result: Construction averaged 80.9 percent 1-year survival; all private sector averaged 78.7 percent. Interpretation: the Construction first-year survival advantage of about 2.2 percentage points has been consistent across recent cohorts, not a one-time artifact of the 2014 cohort. Limitation: averaging across cohorts of different sizes gives each cohort equal weight; an employment-weighted average would differ slightly.
Charts We Recommend
- Construction vs all-private survival curve. Data needed: Table 7 survival rates by age, both series, 2014 cohort. Source: BLS BED Table 7. Insight: Construction sits above the all-private line at every age. Citation-worthy because it visually refutes the “construction firms fail fast” assumption with primary federal data.
- Construction openings by year, 1994 to 2025. Data needed: opening counts per annual cohort. Source: BLS BED Table 7. Insight: the building-cycle boom, bust, and recovery. Citation-worthy as a clean long-run series of new Construction establishment formation.
- First-year survival by recent cohort. Data needed: 1-year survival, Construction and all-private, cohorts 2018 to 2024. Source: BLS BED Table 7. Insight: stability around 80 percent with a pandemic-timing bump. Citation-worthy for showing early-stage survival is macro-sensitive.
- Total business applications, monthly trend. Data needed: Census BFS total applications, seasonally adjusted. Source: Census BFS. Insight: the post-2020 step-up in formation. Citation-worthy as context for the supply of would-be new firms feeding the Construction pipeline.
Methodology
Source selection prioritized primary federal datasets. Two were used as the spine of this report: the U.S. Census Bureau Business Formation Statistics (business applications) and the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Business Employment Dynamics establishment age and survival series (survival rates and establishment openings). Inclusion rule: a figure was used only if it was retrieved from an official BLS or Census source, or from another federal agency (SBA) directly citing Census. Survival figures come from BLS BED Table 7, “Survival of private sector establishments by opening year,” for NAICS 23 (Construction) and Total Private, data through March 2025, retrieved from an archived copy of the bls.gov establishment age and survival page dated June 17, 2026. Conflicting numbers were handled by deferring to the primary table value over any secondary summary. Derived estimates (the survival premium, implied failure rate, and first-year survival index) are simple arithmetic on the published rates, with formulas stated in the Original Synthesis section.
Data limitations: Neither the Census BFS annual survival series nor the BLS BED age series publishes a roofing-only (NAICS 238160) breakout. All survival rates here describe the Construction sector (NAICS 23) as a whole and serve as a proxy for roofing. BED “openings” require positive employment and therefore exclude non-employer roofing firms, which make up a large share of small contractors; survival rates for non-employer roofing businesses are not captured here. Census business applications count EIN filings, not operating businesses, and are reported for all industries or by 2-digit sector, not for roofing alone. The Census BFS by-sector application counts published in the monthly report PDF could not be reliably extracted for Construction from the archived PDF layout, so no roofing or Construction-specific monthly application count is asserted in this report. Last updated: June 29, 2026.
Source Quality and Tiering
Tier 1 (primary government data):
- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Business Employment Dynamics, Establishment Age and Survival Data, Table 7 (NAICS 23 Construction and Total Private), data through March 2025.
- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Business Employment Dynamics Summary, Q3 2025 results.
- U.S. Census Bureau, Business Formation Statistics, January 2025 monthly release.
- U.S. Small Business Administration, citing U.S. Census Bureau Business Formation Statistics (annual applications), January 2024.
Tier 2: None relied upon for numeric claims in this report.
Tier 3: None relied upon for numeric claims in this report.
Most Quotable Statistics
- 42.8 percent of Construction establishments that opened in the year ended March 2014 were still operating 10 years later, in March 2024 (U.S. BLS BED, Table 7).
- Construction establishments survived at a higher rate than the all-private-sector average at every age, beating it by 7.9 percentage points at the 10-year mark (U.S. BLS BED, Table 7).
- 82.8 percent of new Construction establishments survived their first year for the year-ended-March-2014 cohort (U.S. BLS BED, Table 7).
- The implied 10-year failure rate for new Construction establishments was 57.2 percent, versus 65.1 percent for all private-sector establishments (The Roofing Brief calculation from U.S. BLS BED, Table 7).
- A record 5.5 million new business applications were filed across all U.S. industries in 2023 (U.S. SBA citing U.S. Census Bureau BFS, 2024).
- 64,892 new Construction establishments opened in the year ended March 2024 (U.S. BLS BED, Table 7).
Data Limitations
- No federal survival series isolates roofing contractors; Construction (NAICS 23) is the finest published level, and it is used here as a proxy for roofing.
- BED establishment survival requires positive payroll employment, so non-employer roofing businesses are excluded from the survival rates.
- BED “deaths” capture establishments dropping to zero employment, which can include closures, sales, mergers, and reclassifications, not only business failures.
- Census business applications count EIN filings, not confirmed operating businesses; the high-propensity series is a likelihood estimate, not a guarantee of formation.
- The most recent cohorts have not yet reached the 3, 5, or 10-year marks, so those cells are blank rather than estimated.
- Construction-specific or roofing-specific monthly business application counts were not asserted because the by-sector values could not be reliably parsed from the archived BFS report layout.
Recommended Downloadable Dataset Fields
- opening_cohort_year_ended_march
- sector_naics (23 Construction or 00 Total Private)
- establishments_at_opening
- survival_rate_year_1 through survival_rate_year_10
- implied_failure_rate_year_10
- construction_minus_private_premium_by_age
- source_table
- data_through_date
Press Summary
Federal data show that new construction businesses, the closest official proxy for roofing companies, survive at a higher rate than the average U.S. startup, not a lower one. Among construction establishments that opened in the year ended March 2014, 82.8 percent were still operating after one year and 42.8 percent after ten years, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Business Employment Dynamics survival data through March 2025. The all-private-sector cohort from the same year survived at 79.7 percent after one year and 34.9 percent after ten. Construction outperformed the economy-wide average at every anniversary, with the gap widening to nearly 8 percentage points by year 10. New construction establishment formation has recovered strongly from its post-recession low, reaching 64,892 openings in the year ended March 2024. A roofing-only survival rate is not published by any federal agency; all survival figures describe the construction sector as a whole.
Five Headlines Journalists Can Use
- Nearly Half of New Construction Businesses Survive a Decade, Federal Data Show
- Construction Startups Outlast the Average U.S. Business at Every Stage
- 82.8 Percent of New Construction Firms Make It Past Year One
- The 10-Year Survival Gap: Construction Beats All-Industry Average by 8 Points
- Why There Is Still No Roofing-Only Business Survival Rate in 2026
Frequently Asked Questions
How many roofing businesses start each year?
No federal agency publishes a roofing-only count. The nearest proxy is Construction establishment openings, which were 64,892 in the year ended March 2024 (U.S. BLS BED, Table 7). Roofing is one trade within that total.
What percent of construction businesses survive the first year?
82.8 percent of Construction establishments in the year-ended-March-2014 cohort survived 1 year; recent cohorts have ranged from 78.7 to 83.2 percent (U.S. BLS BED, Table 7).
What is the 5-year survival rate for construction businesses?
58.3 percent for the year-ended-March-2014 Construction cohort, measured at March 2019 (U.S. BLS BED, Table 7).
What is the 10-year survival rate?
42.8 percent for the year-ended-March-2014 Construction cohort, measured at March 2024 (U.S. BLS BED, Table 7).
Is construction riskier than other industries?
Not according to the cohort data. Construction beat the all-private-sector survival rate at every age for the 2014 cohort, by 3.1 points at year 1 and 7.9 points at year 10 (U.S. BLS BED, Table 7).
How does construction compare with all businesses at 10 years?
Construction survived at 42.8 percent versus 34.9 percent for all private-sector establishments, a difference of 7.9 percentage points (U.S. BLS BED, Table 7).
How many new business applications are filed overall?
The U.S. recorded 392,496 total business applications in January 2025, seasonally adjusted, and a record 5.5 million in calendar year 2023 (U.S. Census Bureau BFS; SBA citing Census).
What is the implied failure rate over 10 years?
57.2 percent of new Construction establishments do not reach 10 years, versus 65.1 percent for all private-sector establishments (The Roofing Brief calculation from U.S. BLS BED, Table 7).
Why is there no roofing-specific survival rate?
Both Census BFS and BLS BED publish survival and formation at the 2-digit Construction (NAICS 23) level, not at the roofing sub-industry (NAICS 238160) level (data limitation, confirmed June 2026).
Are non-employer roofing businesses included?
No. BED survival requires positive payroll employment, so sole-proprietor and non-employer roofing firms are excluded from the survival rates (U.S. BLS BED methodology).
Cite This Research
The Roofing Brief, “Roofing Business Formation and Survival Report: How Many Start and Survive (2026)”, 2026, https://theroofingbrief.com/roofing-business-formation-survival-report/
Embed or use with credit: “According to The Roofing Brief analysis of U.S. BLS Business Employment Dynamics data, 42.8 percent of new construction establishments survive 10 years, beating the all-industry average. (theroofingbrief.com)”
Sources
- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Business Employment Dynamics, Establishment Age and Survival Data, Table 7 (Survival of private sector establishments by opening year, NAICS 23 Construction and Total Private), data through March 2025. https://www.bls.gov/bdm/bdmage.htm
- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Business Employment Dynamics Summary, Third Quarter 2025. https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cewbd.nr0.htm
- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Business Employment Dynamics, Entrepreneurship and the U.S. Economy. https://www.bls.gov/bdm/entrepreneurship/entrepreneurship.htm
- U.S. Census Bureau, Business Formation Statistics, January 2025 (Release CB25-20, February 12, 2025). https://www.census.gov/econ/bfs/pdf/historic/bfs_2025m01.pdf
- U.S. Census Bureau, Business Formation Statistics program page. https://www.census.gov/econ/bfs/index.html
- U.S. Small Business Administration, “New Business Applications Reach Record 16 Million,” citing U.S. Census Bureau Business Formation Statistics, January 11, 2024. https://www.sba.gov/article/2024/01/11/new-business-applications-reach-record-16-million-under-biden-harris-administration