State-run insurers of last resort, known as FAIR Plans (Fair Access to Insurance Requirements) and Citizens plans, were built as a temporary backstop for a small number of hard-to-insure homes. They are no longer small. FAIR Plans now cover nearly 3 million properties nationwide with combined exposure above $1 trillion, according to the Insurance Information Institute. Roof age and roof condition sit at the center of the story, because a worn or aging roof is one of the fastest ways for a private carrier to non-renew a policy and push a homeowner toward the plan of last resort.
This report aggregates verified enrollment, exposure, and non-renewal data from state FAIR Plans and Citizens corporations, industry residual-market reports, and insurance regulators. It also documents how remote roof inspection using aerial and satellite imagery has become a primary underwriting trigger, and where states have moved to limit roof-only non-renewals. Every statistic below is sourced. Figures we derived ourselves are labeled as Roofing Brief calculations.
Executive summary
- FAIR Plans cover nearly 3 million properties nationwide with total exposure above $1 trillion (Insurance Information Institute).
- U.S. residual-market policy counts nearly doubled from 2018 to 2023, with most of the growth after 2020, and FAIR Plans in Georgia, Louisiana, and Florida each grew more than 200% (AM Best special report).
- The California FAIR Plan held 573,739 policies in March 2025, up 74% since September 2023 and 139% since September 2021 (California FAIR Plan data).
- California FAIR Plan total exposure reached $599 billion in March 2025, a 259% increase since September 2021, and its residential exposure grew 424% from September 2020 to June 2025 (California FAIR Plan; Climate and Energy Policy Program, Stanford).
- Florida Citizens moved the opposite way through active depopulation, falling from a peak of about 1.41 million policies in October 2023 to 777,592 by June 2025 (Florida Citizens Property Insurance Corporation).
- The Massachusetts FAIR Plan grew to more than 173,000 properties in 2024, its largest single-year jump in two decades, while private-market non-renewals rose from 3,483 in 2022 to more than 13,000 in 2024 (Commonwealth Beacon, citing Massachusetts Division of Insurance).
- Insurers increasingly use aerial, satellite, and drone imagery run through AI to flag roof wear, and Louisiana and Massachusetts regulators have moved to limit non-renewals based on aerial images alone.
- Roof age is a leading underwriting cutoff, commonly 15 to 25 years for asphalt shingles, with non-renewal frequently occurring around the 20-year mark.
Key findings
- Nearly 3 million properties, over $1 trillion in exposure. FAIR Plans nationwide now cover close to 3 million properties with aggregate exposure exceeding $1 trillion. Source: Insurance Information Institute, 2025.
- Residual markets nearly doubled in five years. U.S. residual-market policy counts nearly doubled from 2018 to 2023, with most growth after 2020. Source: AM Best special report on residual markets, 2025.
- Three states each grew more than 200%. FAIR Plans in Georgia, Louisiana, and Florida each reported policy increases exceeding 200% over the five years ending 2023. Source: AM Best, 2025.
- Florida dominates the national FAIR Plan pool. Florida Citizens accounted for 68.7% of direct premiums written and 52.7% of all policies across U.S. FAIR Plans, and 99.1% of its policies were residential. Source: AM Best, using 2023 data.
- California policies up 74% in 18 months. The California FAIR Plan held 573,739 policies in March 2025, up 23% since September 2024, 74% since September 2023, and 139% since September 2021. Source: California FAIR Plan data, 2025.
- California exposure passed half a trillion dollars. California FAIR Plan total exposure reached $599 billion in March 2025, up 31% since September 2024 and 259% since September 2021. Source: California FAIR Plan data, 2025.
- California residential exposure grew 424%. California FAIR Plan residential exposure rose 424% from September 2020 to June 2025, reaching $603 billion. Source: Climate and Energy Policy Program, Stanford University, 2025.
- 2024 was a step change in California. In 2024 the California FAIR Plan’s policy count grew 40%, its exposure grew 60%, and its premiums rose 60.2%, the largest premium jump since 2019 and 2020. Source: California FAIR Plan data; AM Best, 2025.
- Florida shrank while others grew. Florida Citizens fell from a peak of about 1.41 million policies in October 2023 to 987,650 in November 2024 and 777,592 by June 2025. Source: Florida Citizens Property Insurance Corporation, 2025.
- Florida depopulation moved hundreds of thousands of policies. Since January 2024, 677,920 Citizens policies were transferred to private insurers through the state depopulation program. Source: Florida Citizens Property Insurance Corporation, 2025.
- Louisiana Citizens more than tripled off its baseline. Louisiana Citizens rose from roughly 35,000 policies to a peak near 140,000 in summer 2023, and remained more than three times its expected 35,000 level in late 2025. Source: Louisiana Citizens Property Insurance Corporation reporting, 2025.
- Massachusetts posted its biggest jump in 20 years. The Massachusetts FAIR Plan grew to more than 173,000 properties in 2024 from 158,660 in 2023, its largest single-year increase in two decades. Source: Commonwealth Beacon, citing Massachusetts Division of Insurance, 2025.
- Coastal Massachusetts is heavily concentrated in the plan. About 40% of homes on Cape Cod and the Islands were enrolled in the Massachusetts FAIR Plan, up from 33% in 2023, and coastal regions made up roughly 55% of all enrollees. Source: Commonwealth Beacon, 2025.
- Private non-renewals in Massachusetts nearly quadrupled. Statewide private-market non-renewals rose from 3,483 in 2022 to 9,248 in 2023 to more than 13,000 in 2024. Source: Massachusetts Division of Insurance, via Commonwealth Beacon, 2025.
- Homeowners underwriting deteriorated nationally. The U.S. homeowners combined ratio worsened to 110.9 in 2023 from 104.5 in 2022, a signal of the loss pressure driving carriers to tighten roof and catastrophe underwriting. Source: AM Best, 2025.
The national residual market
FAIR Plans are state-created pools financed by the private insurers licensed in each state, which share the plan’s profits, losses, and expenses in proportion to their market share. According to the National Association of Insurance Commissioners, as of October 2024, 30 states and the District of Columbia operate FAIR Plans, and 33 states have some form of residual property market. Counts vary by definition. AM Best reported 33 states plus the District of Columbia offering FAIR Plans, and some tallies that include Citizens plans and beach or wind pools reach 35 states plus the District of Columbia. The variation reflects different program types, not conflicting data.
The direction is consistent across sources. U.S. residual-market policy counts nearly doubled from 2018 to 2023, and combined FAIR Plan exposure now exceeds $1 trillion across nearly 3 million properties. Florida is the single largest driver, with Citizens accounting for 52.7% of all FAIR Plan policies nationwide and 68.7% of direct premiums written, based on 2023 data.
Source: National Association of Insurance Commissioners, October 2024; AM Best residual-market special report, 2025; Insurance Information Institute, 2025.
California FAIR Plan
California is the clearest example of a last-resort insurer absorbing risk that private carriers no longer want. The California FAIR Plan held 573,739 policies in March 2025. That was a 23% increase since September 2024, a 74% increase since September 2023, and a 139% increase since September 2021. Total exposure reached $599 billion in March 2025, up 31% since September 2024 and 259% since September 2021.
Residential exposure alone grew 424% from September 2020 to June 2025, reaching $603 billion, according to the Climate and Energy Policy Program at Stanford University. In roughly one quarter of California ZIP codes, FAIR Plan exposure rose by $100 million or more during the nine months from September 2024 to June 2025, and some Los Angeles-area ZIP codes near the January 2025 wildfire zones saw increases above $1 billion each.
2024 was the inflection year. The plan’s policy count grew 40%, its exposure grew 60%, and its premiums rose 60.2%. Reported plan figures put total exposure near $650 billion after a 42% rise in the first three quarters of 2025.
Source: California FAIR Plan data, 2025; Climate and Energy Policy Program, Stanford University, 2025; AM Best, 2025.
Florida Citizens, the counter-example
Florida ran the opposite play. After peaking at about 1.41 million policies in October 2023, Florida Citizens shed policies through an aggressive depopulation program. Its count fell below 1 million to 987,650 by late November 2024, then to 777,592 by June 2025, down 36% year over year and 44.9% from the 2023 peak. Since January 2024, 677,920 policies were transferred to approved private insurers. Citizens exposure shrank about 43% over the year ending in 2025.
The Florida case shows that FAIR Plan growth is reversible when the private market re-enters and a state runs a structured takeout program. It is the most important counterweight to the assumption that last-resort enrollment only rises.
Source: Florida Citizens Property Insurance Corporation, 2024 to 2025; Florida Office of Insurance Regulation, 2024.
Louisiana Citizens
Louisiana Citizens grew from roughly 35,000 policies before the 2020 and 2021 hurricane seasons to a peak near 140,000 in the summer of 2023, driven by private insurer insolvencies and market exits after Hurricanes Laura and Ida. The count remained more than three times its expected 35,000 baseline in late 2025 even as the state pursued takeout initiatives to move policies back to private carriers.
Source: Louisiana Citizens Property Insurance Corporation and Louisiana Department of Insurance reporting, 2024 to 2025.
Massachusetts FAIR Plan
Massachusetts shows the coastal, non-wildfire version of the same squeeze. The Massachusetts FAIR Plan grew to more than 173,000 properties in 2024, up from 158,660 in 2023, its largest single-year increase in two decades and its first increase since 2017. About 40% of homes on Cape Cod and the Islands were enrolled, up from 33% a year earlier, and coastal regions accounted for roughly 55% of all enrollees. The plan caps coverage at $1 million per home. Statewide private-market non-renewals rose from 3,483 in 2022 to 9,248 in 2023 to more than 13,000 in 2024.
Source: Commonwealth Beacon, citing Massachusetts Division of Insurance, 2025.
The roof-condition squeeze
Roof age and roof condition are among the most common reasons a private carrier declines to renew, which is the mechanism feeding FAIR Plan growth. Carriers increasingly assess roofs remotely. They contract third-party aerial, satellite, and drone imagery providers to photograph large numbers of homes, then run the images through AI models trained to flag granule loss, curling, staining, patchwork repair, and general wear. Many homeowners receive roof-related underwriting notices before any in-person inspection is scheduled.
Roof age is often a hard cutoff. Many carriers treat asphalt-shingle roofs as high risk beyond 15 to 25 years, and non-renewal commonly occurs around the 20-year mark. Roofs past a threshold are frequently moved from replacement-cost to actual-cash-value settlement, or excluded from coverage.
Regulators have started to push back on aerial-only decisions. The Massachusetts Division of Insurance cautioned that cosmetic roof conditions visible from aerial photographs should not by themselves be grounds for canceling, declining, or non-renewing coverage. Louisiana law prohibits insurers from relying solely on aerial images to justify a cancellation or non-renewal unless the images were taken within 24 months of the action. These rules matter because roof-driven non-renewals are the on-ramp to the FAIR Plan.
Source: United Policyholders and Insurify reporting on aerial inspection, 2025; Massachusetts Division of Insurance; Louisiana Revised Statutes 22:1339.
Roofing Brief calculations (original synthesis)
The figures in this section are original calculations by The Roofing Brief, derived from the verified public data cited above. They are not published statistics. Each states its inputs and limitations.
- California FAIR Plan average exposure per policy: about $1.04 million (March 2025). Roofing Brief calculation. Formula: $599 billion total exposure divided by 573,739 policies in force, both as of March 2025. Inputs: California FAIR Plan exposure and policy-count data, 2025. Limitation: this is a simple mean across residential and commercial policies and does not reflect the distribution of individual coverage limits.
- California policies added September 2023 to March 2025: roughly 244,000. Roofing Brief calculation. Logic: if March 2025 policies of 573,739 represent a 74% increase over September 2023, the September 2023 base was about 329,700, implying roughly 244,000 net policies added in 18 months, or about 13,500 per month. Inputs: California FAIR Plan policy count and reported growth rate, 2025. Limitation: derived from a stated percentage rather than a separately published September 2023 count, so it carries rounding error.
- Florida Citizens peak-to-trough decline: about 632,000 policies. Roofing Brief calculation. Formula: 1.41 million policies in October 2023 minus 777,592 in June 2025 equals a decline of roughly 632,000 policies, a 44.9% reduction. Inputs: Florida Citizens policy counts, 2023 to 2025. Limitation: the peak figure is reported as approximately 1.41 million, so the absolute decline is approximate.
- Massachusetts private non-renewals grew about 3.7 times in two years. Roofing Brief calculation. Formula: more than 13,000 non-renewals in 2024 divided by 3,483 in 2022 equals a factor of about 3.7. Inputs: Massachusetts Division of Insurance non-renewal counts, 2022 and 2024. Limitation: the 2024 figure is reported as more than 13,000, so the multiple is a lower bound.
Data tables
Table 1. State plan enrollment and direction
| Plan | Recent enrollment | Direction | Reference period |
|---|---|---|---|
| California FAIR Plan | 573,739 policies | Rising, up 74% since Sept 2023 | March 2025 |
| Florida Citizens | 777,592 policies | Falling, down 44.9% from Oct 2023 peak | June 2025 |
| Louisiana Citizens | More than 3x the 35,000 baseline | Elevated after 2023 peak near 140,000 | Late 2025 |
| Massachusetts FAIR Plan | More than 173,000 properties | Rising, largest jump in two decades | 2024 |
Source: California FAIR Plan; Florida Citizens; Louisiana Citizens; Commonwealth Beacon citing Massachusetts Division of Insurance, 2024 to 2025.
Table 2. California FAIR Plan growth
| Metric | Value | Change | As of |
|---|---|---|---|
| Policies in force | 573,739 | +74% since Sept 2023; +139% since Sept 2021 | March 2025 |
| Total exposure | $599 billion | +259% since Sept 2021 | March 2025 |
| Residential exposure | $603 billion | +424% since Sept 2020 | June 2025 |
| 2024 policy growth | +40% | Single-year | 2024 |
| 2024 premium growth | +60.2% | Largest since 2019-2020 | 2024 |
Source: California FAIR Plan data, 2025; Climate and Energy Policy Program, Stanford University, 2025.
Table 3. Florida Citizens depopulation
| Date | Policies in force | Note |
|---|---|---|
| October 2023 | ~1,410,000 | Peak |
| November 2024 | 987,650 | Below 1 million |
| June 2025 | 777,592 | Down 44.9% from peak |
Source: Florida Citizens Property Insurance Corporation, 2024 to 2025. Policies transferred to private insurers since January 2024: 677,920.
Recommended charts
- California FAIR Plan exposure, 2020 to 2025. Data: total and residential exposure by period. Source: California FAIR Plan; Stanford Climate and Energy Policy Program. Insight: exposure more than tripled while premiums lagged. Citation-worthy because it visualizes concentration of catastrophe risk in a state pool.
- Enrollment direction by state plan. Data: policy counts for California, Florida, Louisiana, Massachusetts. Source: each plan. Insight: growth is not universal, Florida shrank through depopulation. Citation-worthy for correcting the assumption that all last-resort plans only grow.
- Massachusetts private non-renewals, 2022 to 2024. Data: statewide and coastal non-renewal counts. Source: Massachusetts Division of Insurance. Insight: the pipeline from private non-renewal into the FAIR Plan. Citation-worthy as a leading indicator.
- Roof age underwriting thresholds. Data: common cutoff ranges by roofing material. Source: carrier underwriting guidance summarized by insurance publishers. Insight: where coverage shifts from replacement cost to actual cash value. Citation-worthy for homeowner decision-making.
Methodology
Source selection prioritized primary and official data: state FAIR Plan and Citizens corporation reporting, state insurance regulators, the National Association of Insurance Commissioners, and the Insurance Information Institute, supported by the AM Best residual-market special report and an academic exposure dataset from Stanford University. Where a figure appeared only in secondary reporting, we retained it only when the underlying primary source was named. Conflicting counts of how many states operate FAIR Plans were reconciled by reporting each figure with its definition and source rather than choosing one. Derived figures were calculated only from the cited inputs and are labeled as Roofing Brief calculations. Statistics that could not be traced to a named source were excluded, including one widely repeated figure on roof-related claims as a share of residential losses that we could not confirm against a primary document. Enrollment and exposure figures are point-in-time and move with each reporting period. Last updated July 2026.
Source quality ranking
Tier 1, primary and official: California FAIR Plan data and California Assembly Insurance Committee oversight materials; Florida Citizens Property Insurance Corporation; Louisiana Citizens Property Insurance Corporation and Louisiana Department of Insurance; Massachusetts Division of Insurance; National Association of Insurance Commissioners; Louisiana Revised Statutes 22:1339.
Tier 2, credible research and industry bodies: Insurance Information Institute; AM Best residual-market special report; Climate and Energy Policy Program, Stanford University.
Tier 3, reputable journalism and expert commentary: Commonwealth Beacon; Insurify; United Policyholders; Artemis.
Excluded: unsourced roundup pages, AI-generated summaries, and one unconfirmed roof-claims share statistic that lacked a traceable primary source.
Most quotable statistics
- FAIR Plans now cover nearly 3 million properties with more than $1 trillion in exposure (Insurance Information Institute, 2025).
- The California FAIR Plan grew 74% in 18 months to 573,739 policies (March 2025).
- California FAIR Plan residential exposure rose 424% from 2020 to 2025 (Stanford Climate and Energy Policy Program).
- Florida Citizens fell 44.9% from its 2023 peak as depopulation moved 677,920 policies to private insurers.
- Massachusetts private non-renewals rose from 3,483 in 2022 to more than 13,000 in 2024.
Data limitations
Enrollment and exposure are point-in-time and change every reporting period, so any single figure ages quickly. State counts of FAIR Plans differ by definition, from 30 states plus the District of Columbia operating FAIR Plans to broader tallies of 33 to 35 states including Citizens and wind plans. The national 52.7% Florida share reflects 2023 data and predates Florida’s depopulation, so Florida’s current share of national policies is lower. Roof-age underwriting cutoffs vary by carrier and state and are not standardized. Derived figures are labeled as Roofing Brief calculations and carry rounding error where they rely on stated percentages rather than separately published counts.
Downloadable dataset, recommended fields
state; plan_name; report_date; policies_in_force; total_exposure_usd; residential_exposure_usd; year_over_year_policy_change_pct; peak_policies; peak_date; private_nonrenewals_count; nonrenewal_year; depopulation_transfers; roof_age_cutoff_years; aerial_inspection_rule; source_name; source_url.
Press summary
State insurers of last resort have moved from backstop to frontline. FAIR Plans and Citizens corporations now cover nearly 3 million U.S. properties with more than $1 trillion in exposure, and U.S. residual-market policy counts nearly doubled from 2018 to 2023. The California FAIR Plan grew 74% in 18 months to 573,739 policies in March 2025, with total exposure at $599 billion and residential exposure up 424% since 2020. Florida ran the opposite direction, cutting Citizens 44.9% from its 2023 peak by transferring 677,920 policies to private insurers. Massachusetts posted its biggest FAIR Plan jump in two decades as private non-renewals nearly quadrupled. Roof age and roof condition are central: carriers now use aerial and AI imagery to flag worn roofs and non-renew around the 20-year mark, and Louisiana and Massachusetts have limited aerial-only non-renewals. The roof is the on-ramp to the plan of last resort.
Suggested headlines
- FAIR Plans Now Insure 3 Million Homes With $1 Trillion at Stake
- California’s Insurer of Last Resort Grew 74% in 18 Months
- Why an Old Roof Is Now a Fast Track to the FAIR Plan
- Florida Shrank Its Last-Resort Insurer While California’s Doubled
- Aerial Roof Scans Are Feeding State Insurers of Last Resort
Frequently asked questions
What is a FAIR Plan? A FAIR Plan (Fair Access to Insurance Requirements) is a state-created insurer of last resort financed by the private insurers licensed in that state, which share its profits, losses, and expenses in proportion to market share. As of October 2024, 30 states and the District of Columbia operate FAIR Plans, per the National Association of Insurance Commissioners.
How many properties do FAIR Plans cover nationwide? FAIR Plans cover nearly 3 million properties with combined exposure exceeding $1 trillion, according to the Insurance Information Institute in 2025.
How fast is the California FAIR Plan growing? It reached 573,739 policies in March 2025, up 23% since September 2024, 74% since September 2023, and 139% since September 2021, per California FAIR Plan data.
How large is California FAIR Plan exposure? Total exposure was $599 billion in March 2025, up 259% since September 2021, and residential exposure reached $603 billion in June 2025, up 424% since September 2020, per the Stanford Climate and Energy Policy Program.
Is every state FAIR Plan growing? No. Florida Citizens fell 44.9% from its October 2023 peak of about 1.41 million policies to 777,592 by June 2025 through a depopulation program that moved 677,920 policies to private insurers, per Florida Citizens.
What happened with Louisiana Citizens? It rose from roughly 35,000 policies to a peak near 140,000 in summer 2023 and remained more than three times its expected baseline in late 2025, per Louisiana Citizens reporting.
How does roof age affect insurance? Many carriers treat asphalt-shingle roofs as high risk beyond 15 to 25 years and often non-renew around the 20-year mark, and older roofs are frequently shifted from replacement-cost to actual-cash-value settlement.
Do insurers inspect roofs by drone or satellite? Yes. Carriers contract aerial, satellite, and drone imagery providers and run the images through AI to flag granule loss, curling, staining, and patchwork repair, often before any in-person inspection, per United Policyholders and Insurify reporting.
Can an insurer drop me based only on an aerial photo? Some states restrict it. Louisiana prohibits relying solely on aerial images unless taken within 24 months of the action, and the Massachusetts Division of Insurance cautioned that cosmetic roof conditions from aerial photos should not alone justify non-renewal.
How does a roof push a homeowner into a FAIR Plan? When a private carrier non-renews over roof age or condition and no admitted insurer will write the home, the FAIR Plan is often the only remaining option, which is why roof-driven non-renewals track with FAIR Plan enrollment growth.
Key terms
FAIR Plan: a state insurer of last resort for hard-to-place property risk. Citizens plan: a state-run residual insurer, used in Florida and Louisiana, that functions as the insurer of last resort. Exposure: the aggregate value of insurance in force. Depopulation: a program that transfers residual-market policies back to private insurers. Non-renewal: an insurer’s decision not to continue a policy at its term end. Actual cash value: a claims settlement basis that deducts depreciation, common for older roofs.
Related Roofing Brief research: Insurance Non-Renewal by Roof Age, Roof Age and Hail Claim Severity, Impact-Resistant Shingle Insurance Discounts by State, and the Wildfire Roof Risk Report.
Reviewed by The Roofing Brief Team. Last reviewed July 2026.